PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:As US Catholic bishops meet, Trump looms over their work on abortion and immigration

As U.S. Catholic bishops gather for their annual fall meeting this week in Baltimore,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center the specter of President-elect Donald Trump’s resounding victory will hang over the proceedings.

The incoming Trump administration offers promise and peril for American Catholic leaders’ top policy concerns, which include abortion and immigration.

Archbishop Timothy Broglio, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, congratulated Trump on his win in a statement, while stressing that the Catholic Church “is not aligned with any political party.”

Catholic teaching prioritizes both the end of abortion and the humane care of migrants. In Trump, as for many U.S. Christians, Catholics find an imperfect standard-bearer.

His anti-abortion rhetoric has been mixed: While Trump has taken credit for the end of federal abortion rights, he has waffled on the concept of a national abortion ban and said abortion policies should be left to the states to decide.

On immigration, he provides a less sanguine picture for Catholic prelates. Trump has campaigned three times on harsh immigration policies and vowed to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.”

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Bishop Mark Seitz of El Paso, Texas, who chairs the U.S. bishops’ committee on migration, said, “We’re very, very concerned about the impact of all this,” referring to Trump’s anticipated immigration measures.

Catholic and faith-based organizations have long shouldered most of the care of migrants on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. For those migrants in his border diocese fleeing violence or facing deportation, Seitz said, “We hear the fear that they live with every day.”

Seitz said the church is calling for an orderly, legal immigration system in which migrants are vetted and “those who are fleeing unlivable situations may enter and those needed to work in our country may receive visas.”

Seitz will be presenting to his fellow bishops this week about a plan to educate people in parishes on the plight of migrants.

Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami, who also serves on the bishops’ migration committee, sounded a note of “cautious optimism” about a second Trump term, believing that the reality of migrants’ contributions to the U.S. economy will matter more than the “hyperbole” about mass deportations.

“If he wants to accomplish ‘the greatest economy ever,’ he’s going to have to work on some type of accommodation on the immigration issues,” said Wenski, who has also worked closely with migrant and refugee communities.

On abortion and other issues, Wenski said the Biden administration had sometimes given people of faith “heartburn because of policy decisions that seem to intrude on religious liberty.”

Wenski was relieved Florida’s abortion rights amendment failed – gaining 57% support when it needed 60% to prevail. But he forecast “a long road ahead of us in promoting a culture of life.”

The bishops stress in their voting guide that fighting abortion is “our pre-eminent priority.”

Bishop Michael Burbidge of Arlington, Virginia, who chairs the USCCB’s committee on pro-life activities, told Catholic broadcast company EWTN last week that his committee will discuss the election results, particularly state ballot initiatives where the anti-abortion movement has a losing record.

“We’re not always going to be victorious, but I commend and thank the bishops and the faithful in all those states that were facing this challenge,” Burbidge said. “Even when we lose, we’re not defeated.”

For anti-abortion Catholics like Charles Camosy, a bioethics professor at Creighton University School of Medicine, neither U.S. political party feels like home. While Vice President Kamala Harris staunchly defended abortion rights, Trump in his view is no anti-abortion warrior either.

Camosy cited Trump’s statement about being “great for women and their reproductive rights,” as well as his support of IVF and state autonomy on abortion. “In my view, that’s a pro-choice position,” Camosy said.

Camosy is cautiously optimistic that incoming vice president, JD Vance, could better represent “the fullness of Catholic teaching.” Vance, a Catholic convert, is part of the growing traditionalist wing of the church.

In this election, Trump strengthened his support among Catholics compared to 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters.

Catholics overall broke for Trump – 54% supported him and 44% supported Harris – but there was a racial divide. About 6 in 10 white Catholics supported Trump, and about 4 in 10 supported Harris. By contrast, about 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Harris, and about 4 in 10 supported Trump.

In Baltimore, the bishops’ meeting will go beyond electoral politics to include drier, bureaucratic fare like the yearly budget approval and “three action items pertaining to liturgical texts.” The gathering will discuss the latest synod meeting in Rome, part of a process to reform the church launched by Pope Francis, whose leadership at times has clashed with the right-leaning American Catholic hierarchy.

From his post along the U.S.-Mexico border, Bishop Seitz said the church will continue to work within U.S. laws while advocating to change those laws it finds unjust.

Two days after the election, Seitz participated in a prayer service for migrants. The following morning, he helped drop water off in the desert for migrants crossing over dangerous terrain.

No matter who is in office, he said, “We as the church will continue to do what the church does.”

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AP reporter Giovanna Dell’Orto contributed to this report.

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