Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Florida primary will set US Senate race but largely focus on state and local races

TALLAHASSEE,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center Fla. (AP) — Compared with the wild twists and turns of the presidential election, Florida’s primary Tuesday will be relatively tame. The only statewide race on the ballot is for the Senate seat held by Republican Rick Scott, who will learn who he’ll face in November.

Local races will be the main motivator to get people to the polls, including school board seats as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis pushes for conservatives to win seats in several districts.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the Florida primary:

U.S. Senate

While Scott technically has a primary, he is expected to win easily over two minor candidates with little name identification or money. He has the power of incumbency along with the backing of his party and has already spent about $27 million on his reelection, including millions of his personal money.

The leading candidate in the Democratic primary is former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who in 2018 became the first Ecuadorian American and first South American born woman elected to Congress. She lost her seat after one term.

Mucarsel-Powell has the backing of party leaders and has raised $12 million for the race. Scott is already campaigning as if she will be his opponent, but she first faces Navy veteran and businessman Stanley Campbell, Army veteran and businessman Rod Joseph and Brian Rush, a former four-term Florida state representative.

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Congress

Incumbents are running for 27 of the state’s 28 House seats and all should be safe in the primary barring any surprises. The one open seat is now held by Republican Bill Posey in a conservative district along Florida’s central Atlantic coast.

Posey announced his retirement hours after former Senate President Mike Haridopolos qualified for the race. He immediately backed Haridopolos, who now faces tech businessman John Hearton. The winner of the GOP primary will be the favorite to win in November. Democrats Sandy Kennedy and Daniel McDow are seeking the Democratic nomination.

U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz’ bid for a fifth term also is gaining some attention, largely because former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political committee has spent $3 million attacking Gaetz and backing primary opponent Aaron Dimmock. McCarthy’s meddling in the race comes after Gaetz led a group of eight far-right Republicans who toppled McCarthy from the speakership with the help of Democratic members.

The attacks on Gaetz have been brutal and stem from a House Ethics Committee investigation into sexual misconduct and drug use. But the allegations aren’t new and Gaetz has a loyal following in the district that includes Pensacola and much of the Panhandle. Since winning office in 2016, Gaetz has easily won primaries with between 65% and 80% of the vote.

State and local races

For the first time ever, Florida Democrats have fielded a candidate for all 120 House and 40 Senate seats. Although it’s an admirable achievement and will force Republicans to spread their money around, Democrats lost control of the Senate in 1992 and the House in 1996.

Republicans have built a supermajority in both chambers. A few seats might change parties after November, but Republicans will likely maintain their dominance in the Legislature.

School board races will face added attention in several districts with DeSantis endorsing 23 school board candidates across 14 counties this cycle and targeting 14 incumbent members. It’s part of his agenda to counter what he calls “woke” ideology in public schools.

By the numbers

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At the voter deadline for the primary, Republicans outnumbered Democrats 5.3 million to 4.3 million, with 3.5 million voters choosing not to register with a party.

As of Friday morning, nearly 1.6 million of Florida’s 13.5 million voters had cast votes by mail or at early voting sites, which indicates a low overall primary turnout. Republicans have cast about 733,00 ballots, compared with about 515,000 Democrats.